Aims: To examine person-specific urge-to-smoke trajectories during the first 7 days of abstinence and the relationship of trajectory parameters to continuous abstinence, demographics, medication and smoking history. Design: Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to model person-specific trajectories for urge-to-smoke. Setting: Two university-based smoking cessation trials. Participants: Treatment seeking smokers in a clinical trial of transdermal nicotine versus nicotine spray (n= 514) and of bupropion versus placebo (n= 421) Measurements: Self-reported urge-to-smoke for 7 days after the planned quit date, and 7 day point prevalence and continuous abstinence at end of treatment (EOT) and 6 months. Findings: Urge-to-smoke trajectory parameters (average level, slope, curvature, and volatility) varied substantially across individuals, had modest intercorrelations, and predicted continuous and point prevalence abstinence at EOT and at 6 months. Higher trajectory level, slope, and volatility were all significantly (p¿ 0.001) associated with a reduced likelihood of abstinence at EOT and at 6-month follow-up (odds ratios from 0.61 to 0.78), controlling for demographic, medication and smoking use variables. Conclusion: Higher urge-to-smoke trajectory parameters of level, slope, and volatility (measured over 7 days) predict continuous and 7 day point prevalence at EOT and 6 months. Although there were some associations of trajectory parameters with demographics and smoking history, the associations of trajectory parameters with relapse were relatively uninfluenced by demographics and smoking history.
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